Search for: All records

Abstract The recent superstorm of 2024 May 10–11 is the second largest geomagnetic storm in the space age and the only one that has simultaneous interplanetary data (there were no interplanetary data for the 1989 March storm). The May superstorm was characterized by a sudden impulse (SI⁺) amplitude of +88 nT, followed by a three-step storm main-phase development, which had a total duration of ∼9 hr. The cause of the first storm main phase with a peak SYM-H intensity of −183 nT was a fast-forward interplanetary shock (magnetosonic Mach numberM_ms∼ 7.2) and an interplanetary sheath with a southward interplanetary magnetic field componentB_sof ∼40 nT. The cause of the second storm's main phase with an SYM-H intensity of −354 nT was a deepening of the sheathB_sto ∼43 nT. A magnetosonic wave (M_ms∼ 0.6) compressed the sheath to a high magnetic field strength of ∼71 nT. IntensifiedB_sof ∼48 nT were the cause of the third and most intense storm main phase, with an SYM-H intensity of −518 nT. Three magnetic cloud events withB_sfields of ∼25–40 nT occurred in the storm recovery phase, lengthening the recovery to ∼2.8 days. At geosynchronous orbit, ∼76 keV to ∼1.5 MeV electrons exhibited ∼1–3 orders of magnitude flux decreases following the shock/sheath impingement onto the magnetosphere. The cosmic-ray decreases at Dome C, Antarctica (effective vertical cutoff rigidity <0.01 GV) and Oulu, Finland (rigidity ∼0.8 GV) were ∼17% and ∼11%, respectively, relative to quiet-time values. Strong ionospheric current flows resulted in extreme geomagnetically induced currents of ∼30–40 A in the subauroral region. The storm period is characterized by strong polar-region field-aligned currents, with ∼10 times intensification during the main phase and equatorward expansion down to ∼50° geomagnetic (altitude-adjusted) latitude. 

Abstract An important discovery of MESSENGER is the occurrence of dayside disappearing magnetosphere (DDM) events that occur when the solar wind dynamic pressure is extremely high and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is both intense and southward. In this study, we investigate the DDM events at Mercury under extreme solar wind conditions using a three‐dimensional (3‐D) global hybrid simulation model. Our results show that when the solar wind dynamic pressure is 107 nPa and the magnitude of the purely southward IMF is 50 nT, most of the dayside magnetosphere disappears within 10 s after the interaction between the solar wind and the planetary magnetic field starts. During the DDM event, the ion flux is significantly enhanced at most of the planetary dayside surface and reaches its maximum value of about 10¹⁰ cm⁻² s⁻¹at the low‐latitude surface, which is much larger than that under normal solar wind conditions. During the DDM events, the dayside bow shock mostly disappears for about 9 s and then reappears. Moreover, the time evolution of magnetopause standoff distance under different solar wind conditions is also studied. When the solar wind dynamic pressure exceeds 25 nPa and the IMF is purely southward, a part of the dayside magnetosphere disappears. Under the same IMF, the higher the solar wind dynamic pressure, the faster the magnetopause standoff distance reaches the planetary surface. When the solar wind conditions are normal (with a dynamic pressure of 8 nPa) or the IMF is purely northward, the dayside magnetosphere does not disappear. The results provide a clear physical image of DDM events from a 3‐D perspective. 

Abstract Interplanetary (IP) shocks are perturbations observed in the solar wind. IP shocks correlate well with solar activity, being more numerous during times of high sunspot numbers. Earth‐bound IP shocks cause many space weather effects that are promptly observed in geospace and on the ground. Such effects can pose considerable threats to human assets in space and on the ground, including satellites in the upper atmosphere and power infrastructure. Thus, it is of great interest to the space weather community to (a) keep an accurate catalog of shocks observed near Earth, and (b) be able to forecast shock occurrence as a function of the solar cycle (SC). In this work, we use a supervised machine learning regression model to predict the number of shocks expected in SC25 using three previously published sunspot predictions for the same cycle. We predict shock counts to be around 275 ± 10, which is ∼47% higher than the shock occurrence in SC24 (187 ± 8), but still smaller than the shock occurrence in SC23 (343 ± 12). With the perspective of having more IP shocks on the horizon for SC25, we briefly discuss many opportunities in space weather research for the remainder years of SC25. The next decade or so will bring unprecedented opportunities for research and forecasting effects in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and on the ground. As a result, we predict SC25 will offer excellent opportunities for shock occurrences and data availability for conducting space weather research and forecasting.